On June 10th, the Scottish Government published ‘Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023’, the official statistics showing emissions of greenhouse gases in Scotland. The headline figure shows Scotland’s latest greenhouse gas statistics sit at a 1.9% year-on-year drop in emissions such as carbon dioxide for 2023.

Between 2020 and 2021, the data showed that total emissions had increased by 2.4% - an outcome that was heavily impacted by lockdowns and restrictions associated with the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2022, Scottish source emissions of the basket of seven greenhouse gases were estimated to be 40.6 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), meaning the level of emissions was effectively unchanged from 2021, amounting to a mere 0.1% reduction on the previous year. 

The 2023 reductions mainly came from the electricity generation sector (-0.8 MtCO2e), following a large reduction in gas-fired electricity generation. However, not all areas of Scotland's economy have been reducing emissions at a similar pace with progress to date mixed across different sectors. For instance, the aforementioned electricity generation reductions were partially undermined by increased emissions from international aviation and shipping returning to pre-pandemic levels. Adding to this, Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) increased by 0.6 MtCO2e, owing to a reduction in the forestry sink as a result of historical planting reaching maturity.

Other sectors showed very little progress. Agriculture emissions were ‘essentially unchanged’, falling by 0.1%. Domestic transport, excluding international aviation and shipping, accounted for the largest sources of net emissions in 2023, followed by buildings and product use. Both showed marginal change, with domestic transport falling slightly by 0.1 MtCO2e. while buildings and product use decreased marginally between 2022 and 2023 from 7.8 MtCO2e to 7.7 MtCO2e (-1.6%).

Scotland’s most significant reductions since 1990 have come from electricity supply emissions, representing a -13.8 MtCO2e; 93.4% reduction. This reflects Scotland’s abundant renewable energy resources, the complete cessation of coal use for electricity generation in Scotland, and a reduction in use of fossil fuels more generally. 

Estimated net emissions have now been cut by 51.3% since the baseline year of 1990, representing a 41.6 MtCO2e decrease, with all sectors except for international aviation and shipping falling over the period. The Scottish Government previously had a target of 56.4% reduction from 1990 levels by 2023, which has now been missed by five percentage points. 

Figures for 2022 showed emissions reduction fell significantly short of the 53.8% reduction target from the 1990 baseline, meaning that 9 of the past 13 annual benchmark targets for tackling climate change were missed. However, in April 2024, annual and interim targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions were dropped as a result of failing to meet them, despite the Scottish Parliament recognising a climate emergency in 2019. 

This coincided with the Scottish Government’s decision to abandon its 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction. While ministers showed commendable leadership in setting ambitious targets, they had consistently failed to take the decisive action needed to decarbonise key sectors.

As a result of the decision to drop targets, Scotland is currently operating without interim targets for cutting emissions until it legislates to replace them with a carbon budget approach, involving legally binding caps on greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland over five-year periods. 

The latest report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC), published in May, recommends the First Carbon Budget would be 57% lower than 1990 levels between 2026 and 2030 (five-year average). This would ramp up to 94% lower than 1990 levels for the Fourth Carbon Budget (2041 to 2045).

Where does Scotland go from here?

The takeaway from the Scottish Government’s decision to drop the 2030 emissions reduction target is not that net zero goals are unattainable. Rather, it is that ambitious rhetoric is meaningless unless it is matched with credible policy implementation. 

As a matter of urgency, the government must rise to the challenge and develop credible plans to decarbonise key sectors. Scotland’s legally binding target to reach net zero by 2045 is still well within reach – but only if bold rhetoric is matched with a comprehensive pathway to delivery. 

The CCC report stresses that these levels of reduction are possible with two important stipulations. Firstly, Scotland will need to resume the pace of emissions reductions seen between 2009-2016 and secondly, Scotland will need to make significant use of devolved powers to broaden reductions into other key sectors of the economy. This is particularly true for areas such as buildings, surface transport, agriculture and land use. 

This will require a step change from the Scottish Government and action from parties across the Scottish Parliament to maximise outcomes related to emissions reductions. For example, the Scottish Government’s Programme for Government 2025-26 committed to introducing the previously delayed Heat in Buildings Bill. This aims to set targets for “installing clean heating systems by 2045”, through encouraging the upgrading of heating systems, including provisions to support development of heat networks. As building-related emissions are key to reducing emissions, it is imperative ambition is maximised during the drafting of this Bill; that cross-party collaboration is embraced to strengthen the Bill as it moves through parliament; and that sustained pressure is applied to ensure the aims of the Bill do not fall short during implementation. 

Furthermore, the rewetting and restoration of peatlands throughout Scotland has the potential to deliver significant emissions reductions in land use, yet all annual peatland restoration targets have been missed, requiring action. The CCC report set out an ambitious pathway, which would see an increase in the proportion of peatland under such management from the current 29% to 45% in 2035, and to 67% by 2045. As we will explore in a forthcoming report, there are significant financial and non-financial barriers to peatland restoration which will need to be addressed if these targets are to be met.

Now that the Scottish Government has put the wheels in motion to reset the framework for climate action, it must follow through with a comprehensive roadmap to decarbonise Scotland’s economy, harnessing the potential of devolved powers. We look forward to the Government's response to the Climate Change Committee report, the upcoming Climate Change Plan, and draft regulations to set carbon budgets.