On June 18th, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published ‘Private rent and house prices, UK: June 2025’, which includes measuring private rent inflation. Our analysis of the latest ONS data shows the extent to which rents in Scotland have been escalating in recent years. 

Since May 2020, Scottish rents have increased by almost a third (32%), up by £245 a month on average. This is almost 3 times the rate of growth in the preceding five years (11%, between 2015 and 2020). Rents grew 4.5% in Scotland in the 12 months to May 2025, above the Consumer Price Index annual rate of inflation which rose by 3.4% over the same period. Rent increases vary by local authority, for example average monthly rents in Glasgow have increased from £741 in May 2015 to £1,231 in May 2025, whereas in Dundee and Angus rents have increased from £553 to £840 over the same period.

However, these figures don't tell us the whole story. Due to data collection limitations, Scotland rent data are mainly for advertised new lets. For the past two years, existing tenancies have partly been sheltered from the market rent increases by emergency legislation and the temporary changes to the rent adjudication system.

The temporary regulations expired on 1 April 2025, which means existing tenants will be exposed to sharp pent-up rent increases starting from 1 July, as a three-month notice period is required for within-tenancy rent hikes.

In 2022, the Scottish Parliament passed emergency legislation, the Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Act 2022, as a temporary response to the impact of the cost of living crisis. This legislation, which ended 31 March 2024, initially limited within-tenancy rent increases to between 3-6%. To support a transition away from this rent cap, the Scottish Government made a temporary change to the current rent adjudication process, which meant that tenants could challenge rent increases and have them reduced to whichever was lowest between the open market rent, the landlord’s proposed rent increase, or a tapered formula capped at 12%.

Analysis by Living Rent found that between May 2024 and Feb 2025, there were 866 cases referred to Rent Service Scotland for adjudication. In that period, the average proposed rent increase by the landlord was 19.7% above existing rent. The average open market rent was 20.9% above the existing rent, but in a quarter (25%) of all the cases that were submitted for adjudication, the open market rent was 30% or above existing rents. 

During this period, which was covered by the transitional rent cap, the average final rent decided by the adjudicator was 9% above existing rent. Living Rent’s analysis found that Rent Service Scotland decisions halved the rent increase faced by tenants on average, clearly providing “an effective tempering mechanism to support tenants.” 

Following the recent changes on 1 April and the required 3 month notice period, from 1 July,  within-tenancy rent increases will be set by the open market for the first time since 2022. Although the rent adjudication process will remain, for any tenants seeking adjudication of a rent increase, the new rent set will be based on the open market rent of similar properties. This means that the rent could be higher than the landlord’s proposed increase.

Our analysis of rent adjudication data since 1 April, when these changes came into effect, has found that of 66 cases sent for adjudication, the average final rent decided by the adjudicator was 14.4% above the existing rent. A third of final rent increases decided by the adjudicator were over 20% higher than existing rent, and the highest landlord-proposed rent increase since 1 April was 80.6%. Without the emergency amendments to the rent adjudication service, a significant number of people will now be facing increases of 20% or more.

The Scottish Government has included the introduction of rent control measures in the Housing (Scotland) Bill, which is currently progressing through the Scottish Parliament. We have already outlined the potential contribution that well-designed rent controls could make to Scotland’s housing crisis. Moreover, rent controls are very popular. Future Economy Scotland polling with YouGov found that 82% of Scots support the Scottish Government setting caps on what private landlords can charge.  

Despite this, many have pointed out that the gap between current protections ending and any future measures coming in (earliest expected is 2027) will seriously undermine rent controls, due to rents continuing to rise ahead of rent controls coming into force.

Indeed, some estate agents have already advised landlords to not only bring rents back in line with market levels, but to take a “long-term strategic approach to rent increases” in light of potential future rent control measures. Our analysis of rent adjudication data since April 1 shows early signs that sharp rent increases are already being pushed through by landlords in existing tenancies.

Data is also an issue. The best available data on Scotland’s private rented sector prices excludes existing tenancies, which poses a problem for accurate assessments of the housing market and well-designed rent controls. The Housing (Scotland) Bill (as introduced) includes a requirement for local authorities to assess rent levels and increases in their area every five years in order for the Scottish Government to determine whether a Rent Control Area is required. But it is currently unclear how local authorities would get this data initially. As Living Rent has pointed out, a similar requirement with Rent Pressure Zones (an already existing piece of legislation which allows for the implementation of rent caps if local authorities can prove rents are too high) has made the policy unworkable. No areas have been designated Rent Pressure Zones since this legislation was introduced in 2016. 

In May 2024, the Scottish Government declared a housing emergency. The Housing (Scotland) Bill provides some of the necessary tools to equip the Scottish Government to tackle the interrelated issues Scotland faces when it comes to housing, from rent increases to homelessness prevention. Designed effectively, and coupled with a range of complementary policies, rent controls can make a modest contribution to tackling Scotland’s housing crisis, and moving towards a more dynamic and just economy. The Scottish Government as well as parties in the Scottish Parliament must now ensure the Bill is as watertight as possible. This includes improving mechanisms to collect better data, and resisting pressure for rent controls to be watered down, especially considering the potential impact of the current gap in protection for renters.