A new report published by the think tank Future Economy Scotland finds that:

●      Total employment supported by North Sea oil and gas in Scotland has fallen by a third (32%) since 2014, amounting to 34,000 job losses – despite hundreds of new licences being issued over the same time period [1]. 

 

●      While green employment has grown in recent years, the pace remains far too slow to offset fossil fuel job losses. The report finds that just 6,000 new direct and supply chain jobs in clean energy have been created since 2014, compared to 18,000 equivalent oil and gas jobs lost [2]. This means that three oil and gas jobs have been lost for every one clean energy job Scotland has created.

 

Forecasts show oil and gas jobs could decline by another 20% to 50% by 2030, threatening tens of thousands more roles. This is driven not by climate policy, but by a maturing basin and dwindling reserves, the report argues. Without decisive action to accelerate green job creation, Scotland risks repeating the mistakes of past deindustrialisation, exposing workers and communities to economic disruption and decline. This is particularly the case in the North East where the bulk of oil and gas jobs are concentrated, the report warns. 

 

To avoid this, the report calls for more proactive policy to seize the opportunities of decarbonisation and transition workers into new green jobs. With the right ambition and policy direction, the net zero transition could create up to 40,000 more energy jobs than will be lost by 2030. But this will require much more proactive policy to create green jobs and map transition pathways for fossil fuel workers. 

 

The achieve this, the report recommends that the Scottish Government:

 

●      Develops a clear transition roadmap underpinned by better data, mapping of skills, and proactive planning to transition workers from oil and gas into secure green jobs.

 

●      Implements an ambitious green industrial strategy, including a binding ‘New Deal for the North Sea’, more investment in green industry, and new subsidies to anchor green supply chains and jobs in Scotland.

 

●      Expands retraining programmes, boosts college funding, and supports the reskilling and retraining of fossil fuel workers.

 

●      Improves pay and conditions in green sectors by strengthening Fair Work standards, extending collective bargaining, and ensuring new green jobs offer fair pay, rights, and security for all workers.

 

Commenting on the findings, Juan-Pedro Castro, Economist at Future Economy Scotland said:

 

“The North Sea is a maturing basin – reserves are running out, and extraction is increasingly uneconomic. While critics like to blame net zero for the industry’s decline, the reality has more to do with geology and economics. Like it or not, Scotland must now prepare for life beyond fossil fuels. 

 

“The good news is that Scotland has some of the best renewable energy resources anywhere in Europe. But so far, job creation has fallen far short of expectations and Scotland’s potential. Over the past decade, Scotland has lost around three oil and gas jobs for every one created in clean energy. Our research shows that, with the right ambition and policy support, the net zero transition can create more energy jobs than will be lost. But to make that happen, we need far more proactive policies to create green jobs, retrain workers, and guarantee a just transition for the workers and communities.”

 
-ENDS-

 

[1] The 34,000 job losses in oil and gas encompass those directly employed in the sector, those supported indirectly through supply chains, and “induced” jobs supported by the spending of a sector’s direct and indirect workers. 

 

[2] 6,000 jobs created in clean energy and 18,000 lost in oil and gas relate to direct and indirect employment only. Induced jobs, which are more loosely linked to the sector and more uncertain, are excluded. 

 

[3] ‘Clean energy jobs’ are defined as those in the ‘low carbon electricity’ category in the ONS’s Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) publication, excluding nuclear energy. Figures for direct oil and gas employment are taken from the ONS’s ‘Business Register and Employment Survey’. Figures for indirect employment are estimated using input-output analysis. 

 

[4] All employment figures stated cover the period 2014 and 2023.

 

[5] The full findings and methodology can be found in the paper, ‘Delivering a Just Transition for Scotland’s Fossil Fuel Workers’ available on our website.

 

[6] Future Economy Scotland is a non-partisan think tank that aims to create a new economy that is democratic, sustainable and just. For more information, visit: www.futureeconomy.scot