Since the discovery of North Sea oil and gas in the 1960s, the fossil fuel industry has shaped Scotland’s economy and identity – anchored above all in the North East, the UK’s fossil fuel heartland. After powering growth, employment and public revenue for decades, the sector is now facing decline. While opponents of climate action often blame net zero targets for the industry’s demise, the underlying reality is far more fundamental. The North Sea is a maturing basin, reserves are running out, and extraction is increasingly uneconomic. Most gas reserves are already depleted, and the oil that remains is largely exported abroad. Like it or not, economics and geology dictate that Scotland must now prepare for life beyond fossil fuels. 

The challenge for policy is profound. The decline of oil and gas will reshape Scotland’s economy, with the greatest pressures falling on workers and communities most dependent on the sector. Fortunately, Scotland possesses some of Europe’s best renewable energy resources, and meeting our 2045 net zero target will also require a surge in employment across sectors from housing retrofit, to heat and nature. If the Scottish Government is to succeed in delivering a just transition, it must oversee a managed restructuring of Scotland’s labour market to steward the transition from legacy carbon-intensive industries into new secure, well-paid green jobs. Whether or not Scotland succeeds hinges on whether sufficient green jobs are created to replace those lost in oil and gas, and accessible transition pathways are provided for workers whose careers are tied to a declining industry.

This paper aims to assess the extent to which this is currently being achieved, and identify the policies required to scale up green job creation and deliver viable transition pathways for fossil fuel workers.