Press Release
Scots £17,000 poorer from flatlining wages
22 April 2026
22 April 2026
Average earnings in Scotland are nearly £17,000 lower than they would have been if wages had grown as normal rather than flatlining following the 2008 financial crisis, new analysis has revealed.
New research published by the non-partisan think tank Future Economy Scotland finds that:
- Real median weekly earnings at the end of 2025 were just £18 higher than they were in 2008 – equivalent to an increase of just 2.4% over the past 17 years.
- If annual earnings had continued to grow in line with their pre-crisis trend, the average full-time worker would be £320 a week better off – equivalent to £16,680 per year.
- In 2025 the average full-time worker in Scotland earned £40,238 a year. If earnings had instead grown in line with pre-crisis trends, the same worker would be earning £56,918 today.
- On average, annual pay grew more than 15 times faster before the 2008 financial crisis than it has done since.
A chart summarising the analysis is shown below.
The research also finds that earnings in Scotland grew more in a single year of the first Scottish Parliament (between 1999 and 2003) than they have over the past 17 years. The analysis reveals that:
- During the first Scottish Parliament between 1999 and 2003, median earnings grew by a total of 10.7% – equivalent to an average of 2.6% per year – after adjusting for inflation.
- Since the 2008 financial crisis, real median earnings have flatlined – growing by a total of just 2.4% over 17 years, equivalent to 0.14% a year on average.
- This means that average earnings in Scotland grew more in a typical year of the first Scottish Parliament than they have over the past 17 years in total.
Commenting on the research, Future Economy Scotland Co-Director Laurie Macfarlane, said:
“The squeeze on earnings over the past 17 years is extraordinary. Scots have forgotten what progress feels like – never in modern times has our pay grown so little for such a prolonged period. The price we have all paid in terms of lost income is staggering.
“Our analysis shows that if wages had instead grown as normal since 2008, the average worker would be nearly £17,000 a year better off. For many households, this is the difference between economic security and living on the breadline.
“Polling shows the cost of living is one of the top concerns among voters this election, and it’s little wonder why. After nearly two decades of flat pay and rising prices, Scots are feeling the squeeze. This election must mark a turning point, but this requires moving beyond business-as-usual. Ambitious rhetoric won’t cut it. Political parties need to confront the root cause: a broken economic model.”
ENDS
NOTES TO EDITORS
[1] All earnings data is taken from the ONS’s Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. Earnings relate to the real median gross weekly earnings of a full-time worker in Scotland. All figures have been adjusted for inflation to represent 2025 prices using the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
[2] The analysis compares trends in real average weekly earnings between 2008 and 2025 to a counterfactual scenario where real earnings grew by 2.2% a year, which is the average rate that real earnings increased by between 1997 and 2008.
[3] Future Economy Scotland is a non-partisan think tank that aims to create a new economy that is democratic, sustainable and just. The organisation does not have a formal stance on Scotland’s constitutional future, and is not aligned to any political party or any politician. The organisation is a not-for-profit company limited by guarantee operating with charitable principles. For more information, visit: www.futureeconomy.scot
[4] To book an interview with a spokesperson, or for any other questions, please contact press@futureeconomy.scot or call 07909107890