The future of oil and gas jobs has been a key battleground in Scotland throughout the general election campaign. Some have claimed that proposals to increase the windfall tax on oil and gas companies could destroy 100,000 jobs in Scotland. As Uplift, BBC Radio 4’s More or Less programme, and The Ferret have highlighted, however, such claims are misleading. 

The reality is that the current trajectory is failing oil and gas workers and communities. The number of jobs supported by the oil and gas sector is already in long-term decline, more than halving from 441,000 jobs in 2013 to 214,000 jobs in 2023 – despite hundreds of new licences having been issued over this period. Neither the issuing of new oil and gas licences, or creating more favourable tax conditions, will change the underlying factors driving this direction of travel, such as the geological exhaustion of productive fields.  

In place of the current pathway, we need a bold and ambitious energy transition plan that protects impacted workers and communities. The greatest opportunity for creating new jobs in the energy sector lies in scaling up Scotland’s enormous renewable energy potential. New polling we have undertaken in collaboration with YouGov finds that Scots agree. 

Our polling finds that nearly two-thirds of Scots think investing in renewable energy is most likely to create the most jobs in Scotland in future, compared to less than a third for oil and gas. 

Despite the battle lines drawn between political parties during the general election campaign, our results also show that support for renewables cuts across party loyalties. The overwhelming number of Labour, SNP and Liberal Democrat voters also agree that investing in renewable energy is most likely to create the most jobs over oil and gas (the polling undertaken by YouGov does not include Scottish Green Party voters).

But how do we make the transition from fossil fuels to renewables in practice? Doing so in a way that protects oil and gas workers and communities will require a significant restructuring of our labour market and industrial base. In recent years fossil fuel companies have attempted to position themselves as stewards of the green energy transition. However, our polling shows that a vast majority (85%) of Scots also have little to no trust in fossil fuel companies to reduce oil and gas production without state intervention to meet the UK’s net zero target.

This includes a large majority in all regions of Scotland, including those where the oil and gas sector plays a prominent role in the economy, such as the North East and Highlands and Islands. In other words: even the communities that are most reliant on the oil and gas sector do not trust a market-led approach to steward the energy transition. 

In recent years the UK Government has issued hundreds of new oil and gas licences, placing trust in fossil fuel companies to manage production in a way that is consistent with zero targets. But the science is clear: there can be no new oil and gas exploration if the world is to stay within safe limits of heating and meet net zero by 2050. 

Not only will leaving the UK’s energy transition in the hands of fossil fuel companies undermine the UK’s ability to meet its net zero target. It could also result in significant economic dislocation, unemployment and regional decline. Scotland continues to bear the scars of poorly managed industrial transitions of the past. The rapid deindustrialisation of Scotland’s economy devastated many parts of the country, particularly in former coal mining and steel communities. As Scotland prepares to embark on another industrial transformation, it is vital that we do not repeat the mistakes of the past.

Managed effectively, the transition to net zero has the potential to create more new jobs than will be lost. But although Scotland has scaled up renewable energy generation over the past decade, this has not yet translated into large-scale job creation due to chronic underinvestment and a weak industrial base. Overcoming this will require proactive policies to scale up green investment, create new domestic supply chains, and re-skill and retrain workers.

The real risk to jobs in Scotland is not the taxation of fossil fuel companies – it is that we fail to invest on the scale needed to create the new green industries of the future. We cannot rely on the market alone to deliver this. Instead, we need a credible roadmap for delivering a just transition to net zero, and a new green industrial strategy to help deliver it. Future Economy Scotland will be publishing more work on this over the coming months.